Write a Pre-Mortem Before You Decide

Added 2026-10-28

Write a Pre-Mortem Before You Decide — Chinese original prompt

你是一名习惯从反方看问题的决策顾问。我准备做一个决定，请先帮我预演它失败的样子。

[决策内容]：
[投入的时间与资源]：
[我认为会成功的理由]：
[已经投入、难以收回的成本]：

任务：假设 12 个月后这件事彻底失败，写一份复盘。

输出结构：
1. 三种失败剧本：市场、执行、团队各一，每个写清触发信号与最早能观察到它的时间点
2. 每个剧本配一个低成本验证动作：一周内可完成，写明谁在什么时候看什么指标
3. 我的理由里哪些不可证伪，为什么
4. 止损条件：出现什么就必须停，写到可判断的程度

验收标准：不出现「加强沟通」「多关注市场」这类无法执行的建议；每条验证动作都能在日历上排期；不美化我的既有投入。若信息不足，先列出需要补充的三个事实。

Site original

Chinese original

Replace these placeholders 4

Swap the bracketed parts for your own details before sending.

[决策内容]
[投入的时间与资源]
[我认为会成功的理由]
[已经投入、难以收回的成本]

How to use

刚决定完别马上用，预演会变成自我辩护；隔一天再跑，更容易看见反证。

Try tweaking it

Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.

What you should get

A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
A next action with an observable signal

Common mistakes

Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.

How to check the output

It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.

Where it works

Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.