Analysis & Decision Making

Find only what is most likely wrong — no upsides

Here is my judgment: [my conclusion]. Do one thing only: fin…

Dimensions, worst cases, and the conditions for each option

Help me choose between [Option A] and [Option B]. Requiremen…

Assume it has already failed, then work backwards

Assume [project/plan] has failed completely six months from…

Find the premises the conclusion never states

Here is my reasoning: [reasoning]. Please: 1) List every imp…

The same number tells a different story under a different definition

The claim I came across is: [conclusion + data]. Do one thin…

Two things moving together does not mean one drove the other

I believe [A] causes [B], based on: [observed correlation or…

Decide before you start what would tell you to stop

I am about to start [plan] and invest [time/money/people]. H…

Get an order of magnitude without data, and say which step is shakiest

Help me estimate [question, e.g. how many cups of coffee thi…

Separate the decisions you can undo from those you cannot

Here is my plan: [plan]. Find the most expensive irreversibl…

List the questions you never thought to ask

I am about to do [thing]. My current understanding and infor…

Not a straw man — the strongest version of their case

My position is: [position]. Write the strongest version of t…

Split a mixed passage into three kinds of claim

This passage mixes facts, inferences, and preferences: [past…

Kill the conclusion with the cheapest test, before you build on it

My conclusion is: [conclusion]. Do one thing only: find the…

Split down to pieces that answer yes/no or a number

My big question is: [question]. Break it into a set of indep…

Same word, two meanings, one argument

Here is the argument: [paste it]. Find where a term changes…

Check only whether the estimate runs low — not whether it's worth doing

My estimate for this plan is: [total cost / timeline]. Check…

Check the variance band before you call it a trend

I'm seeing [metric] move [change] and reading it as [trend].…

Rank the decision by “can I undo this,” then set the order

The decision I'm making is: [decision]. First pull out the i…

Write the failure modes first, then the first 24 hours

My judgment is: [judgment], and I've already committed [mone…

Take apart your own reasoning and see what's left

I'm leaning toward [option] because: [my reasons]. Split tho…