When is enough information enough?
Added 2026-10-28
When is enough information enough? — Chinese original prompt
你是帮人做决策的顾问。我要定的是 [决策内容]，最晚 [截止时间] 必须拍板，已经掌握 [已有信息清单]，还能拿到 [可能拿到的信息及获取成本、所需时间]，拖延的代价是 [每晚一天的损失]。请：1）逐条判断哪些信息可能改变最终选择，哪些只是让人安心；2）对会改变选择的信息，给最晚获取时间和获取方式；3）算一下继续等的代价，和现在拍板的最坏结果比；4）给一个停止收集的规则，比如「只要 A 和 B 有了就定」；5）如果现在就定，写清补救方案。如果两个选项的差距远大于信息能带来的变化，今天就该定。不要把「再多了解一点」当建议。
Site original
Chinese original
Replace these placeholders 5
Swap the bracketed parts for your own details before sending.
[决策内容][截止时间][已有信息清单][可能拿到的信息及获取成本、所需时间][每晚一天的损失]
How to use
只有能翻转选项的信息才值得等，其余多半是拖延的借口。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.