Start with the base rate
Added 2026-10-28
Start with the base rate — Chinese original prompt
帮我校正一个判断。我的判断是 [一句话结论]，期限 [时间范围]，背景 [关键事实，不超过五条]，我已知的相关数据是 [数字或「没有」]。请：1）先说这属于哪个参考类别，这类事通常的结果区间是多少；2）没有可靠基率就直接说不知道，并告诉我该去查什么，不要编数字；3）列三个会让我上调或下调的具体因素，各说理由；4）给调整后的概率区间，并说明这个区间有多粗；5）指出我最可能错在哪、错了会怎样。用区间和条件句，别用「很有可能」这种没有信息量的词。参考类别最多两个，别把性质不同的事混在一起；信息不够给区间时，直接说缺哪一项。
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Chinese original
Replace these placeholders 4
Swap the bracketed parts for your own details before sending.
[一句话结论][时间范围][关键事实，不超过五条][数字或「没有」]
How to use
基率只是起点，你的市场和样本不同就得重新估。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.