A Devil's Advocate Memo Before a Big Decision
Added 2026-10-28
A Devil's Advocate Memo Before a Big Decision — Chinese original prompt
我要做一个决定：[决定内容、期限、涉及的人和钱]，目前的倾向是 [我倾向的选择]，主要理由是 [我给出的理由]。请你扮演一个不讨好我的反方：先复述我的理由，确认没理解错；再给最强的三条反对意见，每条要有具体触发场景，不要泛泛说风险；然后指出我可能忽略的利益相关方和他们的反应；接着写清出现什么信号就该撤回，以及撤回要付的代价。最后给一个成本更低的试验方案，两周内能验证最关键的假设。不要为了显得客观而附和建议，反方理由不成立就直说。验收标准是我读完能说出「如果 X 发生，我就停」这句具体的话，并注明最晚什么时候必须复检。
Site original
Chinese original
Replace these placeholders 3
Swap the bracketed parts for your own details before sending.
[决定内容、期限、涉及的人和钱][我倾向的选择][我给出的理由]
How to use
只在自己已经有明确倾向时用，还没想清楚会变成空谈。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.