Find the Hidden Assumption in a Plan
Added 2026-11-02
Every plan rests on unverified conditions; name them.
Here is a plan. Find the assumptions it depends on but does not state: 1) three conditions that must hold or the plan fails; 2) whether each has evidence today, and the cheapest way to test the ones that do not; 3) which assumption is most fragile — if it breaks, the plan needs rework; 4) order the assumptions by how checkable they are; 5) give a 20-minute action to check them. Do not rewrite the plan.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
计划失败很少因为执行差，多因为前提没验证。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.