Decide with Incomplete Information
Added 2026-11-02
Separate what you must know now from what you can learn while acting.
I need to decide with incomplete information (details below). Do: 1) split what is missing into must-know-before-deciding and can-learn-while-executing; 2) for the first group, give the cheapest way to get it and how long it takes; 3) for the second, design a reversible first step; 4) judge whether the decision is reversible, and if not, what to wait for; 5) give one sentence that justifies the choice even with gaps. Do not suggest "let us research more".
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
信息永远不会齐；可逆决定先做，不可逆决定等信号。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.