Why your time estimates keep missing
Added 2026-10-29
Why your time estimates keep missing — Chinese original prompt
你是做项目排期的技术负责人。我要估 [任务] 的工期，我的直觉是 [天数]，过去类似任务实际用了 [天数]，中途被打断的比例大概是 [比例]，依赖方是 [谁/外部系统]。请：1）指出我这次估时最可能漏掉的四类时间：等待、返工、沟通、收尾；2）用我给的偏差率，把直觉估时校准成一个区间，并说明上下限各来自什么；3）把任务拆成不超过半天的小项，每项标注是否依赖别人、是否需要等待；4）指出哪个环节一旦延期影响最大，建议先做哪一项验证；5）给一句能对外承诺的说法，既留余量又不显得不专业。不要给一个看似精确的单点数字。验收：拆出的每一项都能判断完成与否，区间有来源。
Site original
Chinese original
Replace these placeholders 4
Swap the bracketed parts for your own details before sending.
[任务][天数][比例][谁/外部系统]
How to use
没有历史数据时别硬套偏差率，先按最坏情况报，再补一次估算记录。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.