Think About the Second-Order Effect
Added 2026-11-02
First order is the direct result; second order is how others respond to it.
I am evaluating an approach (described below). Walk me through two levels: 1) first order — what directly happens; 2) second order — how others change their behaviour in response: customers, colleagues, competitors, systems; 3) which second-order reaction cancels the first-order benefit; 4) an observation window for when second-order effects show up; 5) judge whether this approach needs an exit path.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
政策、定价、补贴的失败，多半输在第二层。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.