Write a Renewal Forecast

Added 2026-11-06

Renewals are not a renewal-time question; they are a quarter-ahead forecast.

I need a renewal forecast for these customers: [list, contract value and expiry, usage]. Write it: 1) classify as certain, likely, at risk, certain to leave, with evidence for each; 2) for each at-risk customer, name the specific risk — low usage, champion left, budget cut, competitor; 3) compute optimistic, base, and pessimistic renewal revenue and where the differences come from; 4) design the 90-day action list — who does what, when; 5) flag customers who would be unprofitable even if renewed, and whether to renew; 6) list who to start talking to now and with what opening.

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Replace these placeholders 1

Swap the bracketed parts for your own details before sending.

[list, contract value and expiry, usage]

How to use

At-risk customers must surface 90 days out; in the final month the only lever is discount.

Try tweaking it

Have it state how the hypothesis could be falsified before discussing execution.
Split the plan into a one-week testable experiment.

What you should get

A small testable experiment with a failure threshold
Costs, risks, and what needs outside confirmation

Common mistakes

Asking for a "full business plan" and getting unverifiable optimistic assumptions.
No failure threshold, so you never know whether to continue.

How to check the output

There is a clear failure threshold, testable within a week.
Costs, assumptions and risks are listed separately.

Where it works

Good for: turning business assumptions into a small testable experiment with a failure threshold first.
Watch out: for pricing, contracts and legal points, treat output as a draft needing professional review.