Test an Idea at the Lowest Cost
Added 2026-10-30
Break the idea into falsifiable assumptions and design a one-week test.
I have an idea (described below) but do not want to invest much. Do: 1) break it into three assumptions that must hold; 2) give each a signal I would see if it is wrong; 3) design the lowest-cost validation completable within a week (manual is fine, existing tools are fine); 4) name the assumption most likely to fail; 5) tell me when to double down and when to stop after results come in.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
先证伪，再投入。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.