Test a Belief Against a Counterexample
Added 2026-11-04
Only a counterexample tells you where a belief stops holding.
I hold a belief or judgement (described below). Do: 1) find three situations that could be counterexamples; 2) judge whether each truly refutes it or only shows it has conditions; 3) if conditional, rewrite the belief with those conditions; 4) point out the counterexample I least want to face; 5) give a test I can use day to day. Do not reassure me that the belief is right.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
没有反例的信念，通常是没想清楚。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.