Tell a Real Risk from a Worry
Added 2026-10-31
Filter worries with probability times impact.
I listed a pile of worries. Do: 1) classify each as a verifiable risk or an emotional worry; 2) for verifiable ones, estimate likelihood and severity (high, medium, low); 3) keep only the three worth acting on now and give an action each; 4) point out which worries come from missing information and what to check; 5) tell me which one I am over-weighting.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
担忧不需要处理，风险才需要。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.