Run a Pre-Mortem on the Plan
Added 2026-10-30
Assume the plan already failed, work backwards to causes, then turn them into risks you can handle early.
We are about to execute a plan (described below). Assume it failed six months later. Do: 1) write the three most likely causes of failure, ranked by probability; 2) give each an early signal — what would show it is happening; 3) give each signal the cheapest counter-action; 4) name the single point in the plan that must not fail. No success advice — only the pre-mortem.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
提前把失败想清楚，比事后复盘便宜得多。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.