Find the Cheapest Experiment
Added 2026-11-04
Ask what the cheapest test can prove before investing more.
I have a hypothesis to test (below). Find the cheapest experiment: 1) three ways to test it, cheapest first; 2) how much each can prove — can it falsify; 3) when the cheapest one could lead to a wrong conclusion; 4) a path that runs the cheapest first and decides whether to escalate; 5) what signal justifies a more expensive test. Do not jump straight to A/B testing.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
实验的价值不在严谨，在「用最少成本证伪」。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.