Estimate Work You Cannot See Yet
Added 2026-11-02
Estimate in three bands — known, unknown, unknown-unknowns — instead of one fake-precise number.
I need to estimate work that has not started (context below). Do: 1) list what is clearly required, with hours; 2) list what is known to exist but unclear, as ranges rather than points; 3) list plausible unknowns and suggest a buffer percentage by likelihood and impact; 4) give optimistic, realistic and pessimistic totals with their assumptions; 5) say which single piece of information would narrow the estimate most. Do not give one precise-looking number.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
估不出来时给区间，比给假精确的数更专业。
Try tweaking it
- Have it restate requirements and constraints before writing code.
- Ask for the smallest change plus a rollback path, not a full-file rewrite.
What you should get
- A minimal, runnable change with copy-ready code
- Impact list: which files and call sites must follow
Common mistakes
- Asking it to touch ten files at once, then losing track of what broke what.
- Pasting only the error, with no code or version, and getting an unfixable answer.
How to check the output
- The change runs, can be rolled back, and touches nothing unrelated.
- Edge cases (empty, oversized, concurrent) are covered or explained.
Where it works
- Good for: having it restate requirements and constraints, then propose the smallest runnable change.
- Watch out: include versions and a minimal reproduction with the error, or the fix may look plausible but not fit.