Decide How Much Uncertainty to Accept
Added 2026-11-03
Replace "we will see" with an explicit range and trigger conditions.
I am about to start something with many unknowns (details below). Do: 1) list the three main uncertainties and classify each as reducible or not; 2) set an acceptable range for each; 3) say what I do when one exceeds the range; 4) judge which can be learned on the way and which must be reduced first; 5) write one acceptance statement for the plan. Do not suggest waiting for all uncertainty to disappear.
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
成熟的决定不是没有不确定性，而是明确了接受多少。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.