Is Your Plan Using the Right Time Horizon?
Added 2026-11-03
The wrong horizon makes fast things slow and slow things urgent.
I have a plan (below). Check its time horizon: 1) say over what period the costs and benefits actually land; 2) point out where the plan uses the wrong horizon, such as measuring a year-long change with quarterly reviews; 3) propose layers: what to do now, what to watch mid-term, what to wait for; 4) identify milestones set too early or too late; 5) warn me which behaviours a wrong horizon produces. Do not suggest "invest more".
Site original
Chinese original
How to use
时间尺度错了，努力会显得没有回报。
Try tweaking it
- Ask what evidence would overturn the judgement.
- Have it argue both sides with three reasons each.
What you should get
- A decision table: assumptions, evidence, counter-evidence
- A next action with an observable signal
Common mistakes
- Asking only "should I?" and getting equally valid answers both ways.
- Never asking for counter-examples, so you only hear support.
How to check the output
- It states what evidence would overturn the conclusion.
- Both sides are argued, with assumptions marked as such.
Where it works
- Good for: splitting a decision into assumptions, evidence and counter-cases, leaving the call to you.
- Watch out: ask what evidence would overturn the judgement, or you will only hear supporting reasons.